Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election has reignited speculation about his stance on import tariffs, particularly for goods like wine. Set to become the 47th president following his inauguration in January 2025, Trump’s return to the White House raises questions about potential new tariffs on wine and other imports.
On the campaign trail, Trump hinted at his interest in tariffs, once telling Bloomberg that “tariff” was his favorite word. How his rhetoric will translate into actual economic policies remains uncertain, but the wine industry faces additional challenges, such as declining consumption rates, adding complexity to the issue.
The US Wine Trade Alliance (USWTA), an anti-tariff group, has consistently argued that higher tariffs reduce consumer choices and place financial strain on domestic companies. USWTA president Ben Aneff wrote in Wine Industry Advisor that it’s a misconception that consumers would simply replace foreign wines with American alternatives if tariffs were imposed.
In 2023, the U.S. was the world’s top wine importer by value, spending nearly €6.2 billion, despite an 11% decline from the previous year, according to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV). Only Germany and the UK imported more wine by volume.
European trade associations are approaching Trump’s election with cautious optimism. Miles Beale, CEO of the UK’s Wine & Spirit Trade Association (WSTA), noted some “clear concerns” based on Trump’s first term, especially regarding tariffs related to broader trade disputes. However, he also acknowledged the potential for a US-UK free trade agreement.
Meanwhile, the French Federation of Wine and Spirits Exporters (FEVS) extended congratulations to Trump and called for “constructive dialogue” between the U.S. and EU, emphasizing the longstanding relationships between businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.
During Trump’s first term, U.S.-EU-UK trade disputes over issues like steel, aluminum, and aerospace subsidies led to tariffs on some wines and spirits, as in the Airbus-Boeing conflict. In 2021, FEVS reported that U.S. tariffs related to this dispute had reduced American imports of French wines by €400 million in 2020. While this dispute was paused for five years under the Biden administration, no lasting solution was reached.
In a related trade issue, the U.S. Distilled Spirits Council warned that EU tariffs on American whiskies, suspended during negotiations, could revert to a steep 50% rate by March 2025 without a resolution on steel and aluminum subsidies.
Wine and spirits producers have become accustomed to navigating trade disputes. Earlier this year, China lifted punitive tariffs on Australian wine that had been in place since 2020, providing a hopeful sign for global wine markets.
