A new study warns that up to 70% of the world’s wine-producing regions could become unsuitable for grape cultivation if global temperatures rise above 2°C. Researchers predict that iconic wine areas in California, Spain, Italy, France, and Greece could vanish under such conditions. After analyzing over 200 studies on climate change and grape production, they found that 29% of regions could face extreme climate conditions, making premium wine production impossible. An additional 41% might survive, but only with significant adaptation measures.
With global temperatures already 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, wine production is increasingly threatened by severe weather events. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) reported the lowest yields since 1961 due to frost, heavy rainfall, and drought. Despite efforts like the 2015 Paris Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, putting regions like Barossa, Stellenbosch, and Mendoza at risk.
Researchers from the University of Bordeaux and the University of Burgundy segmented wine-producing areas into macro-regions based on climate conditions. They found that 49% to 70% of current wine regions face substantial risks of becoming unsuitable for grape growing, with 90% of traditional coastal and lowland regions in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Southern California at risk of disappearing due to excessive drought and heatwaves.
While some regions like the UK, northern France, and Oregon could benefit from slightly warmer temperatures, the researchers emphasize that keeping global warming below 2°C is crucial to preserving over half of the world’s traditional vineyards. Adaptation strategies, such as introducing different grape varieties, may help some regions, but the challenge remains immense.
